India’s Coffee Output For 2025–26 Trimmed By 30,000 Tonnes Despite 3% Growth, Say Karnataka Planters’ Association

Erratic weather hits arabica as India targets 3.73 lakh tonnes for 2025–26 crop. Representative Image

Chikkamagaluru: India’s coffee production for the 2025–26 crop year is expected to post a modest increase of around 3% compared to last year’s final estimate of 3.63 lakh metric tonnes, according to the Karnataka Planters’ Association (KPA).

The planters’ body, however, cautioned that prolonged and unseasonal rains had inflicted significant damage across major coffee-growing regions, reducing the initial yield projections by nearly 30,000 metric tonnes.

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Erratic weather slashes earlier estimates:

Addressing reporters ahead of the KPA’s 67th Annual General Meeting in Chikkamagaluru on Monday, KPA Chairman A. Aravind Rao said persistent rainfall from mid-May to mid-November had severely impacted plantations in Chikkamagaluru, Hassan, and Kodagu. Continuous downpours, accompanied by unusually low temperatures and limited sunlight, triggered widespread leaf and stem rot, berry drop, and poor berry development.

As a result, the association has placed the country’s overall coffee output at 3.73 lakh metric tonnes for 2025–26, significantly lower than the Coffee Board’s post-blossom forecast of 4.03 lakh metric tonnes.

Arabica hit harder than robusta:

Breaking down the projections, Rao said arabica production is likely to range between 1 lakh and 1.2 lakh metric tonnes slightly below the Coffee Board’s estimate of 1,18,125 metric tonnes. Robusta output, which showed better resilience to erratic weather, is expected to touch between 2.6 lakh and 2.7 lakh metric tonnes, compared to the Board’s projection of 2,84,875 metric tonnes.

He noted that the fresh estimates were calculated based on the standing crop, arabica harvesting has begun in parts of the State, while robusta harvest is set to commence by mid-December. However, the extensive rain-induced damage during the growth cycle has already reduced the potential size and quality of the cherries.

Karnataka remains key producer but faces long-term decline:

Rao emphasised that Karnataka continues to lead national coffee production, backed by data from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). Of India’s total 4.65 lakh hectares under coffee cultivation, Karnataka accounts for 2.46 lakh hectares, contributing roughly 70% of all coffee grown in the country.

Yet, he pointed out a worrying long-term trend: both acreage and production have steadily fallen over the past two decades, largely due to extreme and unpredictable weather. “Heavy rains between May and September caused damage in every growing belt this year,” he said, explaining that climate volatility, manifesting as droughts, landslides, and severe soil erosion has posed an escalating threat to crop sustainability.

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Climate change and weak global branding major obstacles

The harvest season has begun gradually, with arabica beans being picked in select plantations. Full-scale harvesting of both varieties is expected to gather pace in December across Kodagu, Chikkamagaluru, and Hassan.

The KPA chairman highlighted two critical challenges confronting the sector: climate change and India’s limited visibility in global coffee markets. “The impact of global warming on Karnataka’s coffee is both substantial and alarming,” Rao said, adding that unpredictable rainfall has undermined soil health and plant vitality, directly affecting yields.

On branding, he noted that Indian coffee continues to suffer from low recognition and weak value perception overseas. Improving quality through enhanced post-harvest processing and modern grading practices is essential to elevating India’s global market presence, he suggested.

AGM to focus on sector outlook

The Karnataka Planters’ Association will hold its 67th Annual General Meeting in Chikkamagaluru on Tuesday.

The event will be inaugurated by K. J. George, Karnataka’s Minister for Energy, and is expected to feature discussions on production trends, climate resilience, and the future of coffee cultivation in the State.

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