Explained | India’s Coffee Output Set for Record High in 2025–26, But Planters Warn of Weather-Hit Yields
- Saritha Devaiah Ballachanda
- 11 minutes ago
- 2 min read
India’s coffee output for the 2025–26 crop year (beginning October) is projected to touch an all-time high of 4.03 lakh tonnes, according to the Coffee Board’s post-blossom estimates. While the headline number looks impressive, growers on the ground are far from optimistic. Here’s why.
What are the Coffee Board’s latest estimates?
The Coffee Board’s post-blossom estimates — the first official forecast after the flowering season — suggest a record harvest for the year.
Total output: 4.03 lakh tonnes (↑11% from 3.63 lakh tonnes in 2024–25)
Arabica: 1.18 lakh tonnes (↑12%)
Robusta: 2.84 lakh tonnes (↑9.5%)
Together, the three traditional coffee-growing states — Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu — are expected to contribute 3.85 lakh tonnes of the total output.
Which states are leading the growth?
Karnataka, India’s coffee powerhouse, continues to dominate with about 70% of total production.
Karnataka: 2.80 lakh tonnes (↑ from 2.56 lt)
Kodagu: 1.30 lt (↑ from 1.21 lt)
Chikkamagaluru: 1.04 lt (↑ from 0.91 lt)
Hassan: 45,175 tonnes (↑ from 43,000 tonnes)
Kerala is forecast to produce 85,150 tonnes, up from 72,950 tonnes last year, driven largely by robusta.
Tamil Nadu is expected to post a smaller rise — 20,315 tonnes compared to 19,275 tonnes previously.
In non-traditional regions such as Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, and the North East, production is estimated at over 17,000 tonnes, a small but notable contribution.
Why are the projections so optimistic?
The Coffee Board’s projections are based on field surveys conducted in May and June, when weather conditions and flowering patterns looked favourable. Good rainfall early in the season had raised expectations of a bumper crop, especially in Karnataka and Kerala.
What could go wrong?
Growers believe the Coffee Board’s optimistic projections may not hold true once the monsoon’s impact is fully assessed. They point out that excessive and prolonged rainfall this year has already caused widespread damage — triggering black rot disease in arabica plants and fruit rot in robusta cherries.
The continuous downpour also disrupted pollination, as flowering occurred simultaneously across several estates, reducing the chances of proper fruit set. These weather-related challenges, planters warn, could lead to a noticeable decline in yields when the Coffee Board releases its post-monsoon estimates early next year.
What are growers saying?
According to Business Line report, Industry representatives have expressed scepticism about the Coffee Board’s upbeat projections. Sahadev Balakrishna, Chairman of the UPASI Coffee Committee, said the figures appear overly optimistic, particularly for arabica, noting that continuous rainfall has made it unlikely for production to even cross 1 lakh tonnes.
Echoing this concern, M. Salman Baseer, Vice-Chairman of the Karnataka Planters Association, observed that the heavy and persistent monsoon had led to significant crop loss and poor pollination, warning that the actual output is likely to fall well short of the Board’s current estimates.
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