January Showers Hit Robusta Harvest, Raise Fears Over 2026–27 Coffee Crop

Planters’ associations point out that the timing of the rain has compounded existing challenges.

Madikeri: Unseasonal rainfall during January has emerged as a major setback for India’s coffee sector, particularly for growers cultivating robusta, who are in the midst of harvesting operations. Untimely showers across key coffee-growing regions in Karnataka and Kerala have not only disrupted harvesting and post-harvest drying but have also raised fresh anxieties about the outlook for the 2026–27 season.

Growers in districts such as Kodagu, Chikkamagaluru and Hassan in Karnataka, along with Wayanad in Kerala, say rainfall during mid-January interrupted field activities at a critical stage, according to a report in Business Line. The precipitation delayed picking, affected the drying of coffee cherries, and unexpectedly induced flowering, which planters warn is uneven and premature. Such early flowering, they say, could compromise both yield and quality in the coming season.

Planters’ associations point out that the timing of the rain has compounded existing challenges. With labour availability already tight during the peak harvest period, the sudden showers have further slowed operations. In addition, growers were not prepared to manage early flowering through irrigation, as most estates had not yet completed harvesting or set up for backing showers.

Meteorological data underline the unusual nature of the rainfall. According to figures from the India Meteorological Department, major coffee-producing districts recorded significant excess precipitation between January 1 and 30. Chikkamagaluru saw rainfall far above normal levels, while Kodagu and Wayanad also reported sizeable surpluses compared to their long-term averages for the month.

Industry representatives warn that the impact is twofold. For the current season, rain during harvest can cause cherries to dry on the plant itself, leading to reduced parchment recovery. At the same time, the next season’s crop could be affected due to uneven berry development, early ripening and a higher likelihood of fruit drop later in the year, particularly around June.

While the Arabica harvest has largely concluded in most regions and is expected to be higher than last year, robusta tells a different story. Harvesting of robusta has begun, but growers anticipate output to be lower compared to the previous season. The unseasonal rainfall has added uncertainty to an already weaker crop outlook.

Agronomically, robusta plants require a distinct stress period between harvest and flowering to ensure uniform blossom and good fruit set. Typically, blossom showers arrive during February or early March, followed by backing showers that help in crop setting. This year, however, January rains arrived too early, eliminating the necessary dry spell and creating confusion among growers about whether and when to provide irrigation support.

Coffee sector officials acknowledge that the early rains have posed technical difficulties for robusta growers. Since harvesting was incomplete, many planters were reluctant to apply backing showers, fearing that irrigation would trigger further uneven blossoming. As a result, some fruit drop has already been reported, and the overall crop size may be affected. A detailed assessment of the damage is expected to be completed by the end of March.

Small growers’ organisations have expressed particular concern, noting that robusta output is already under pressure this year. They estimate that losses in the current season could range between 10 and 20 per cent due to the January rains. More worryingly, they caution that as much as 30 per cent of the 2026–27 robusta crop could be at risk because of irregular flowering and uncertain crop setting.

On the ground, growers say that nearly half the robusta crop is still awaiting harvest. The recent rains have led to fruit drop and uneven flowering, making it difficult to take timely decisions on irrigation. Many fear that any misstep now could further affect next year’s prospects.

In its initial post-blossom estimates for the 2025–26 season, the Coffee Board has projected total production at 4.03 lakh tonnes, including 1.18 lakh tonnes of Arabica and 2.84 lakh tonnes of robusta. However, growers believe actual output may fall short of these estimates, with Arabica closer to 1.10 lakh tonnes and robusta potentially declining to around 2.6–2.7 lakh tonnes.

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