Explained | Kodagu's Coffee Crop Under Threat? Weak Monsoon Raises Fears Over Yields and Pest Attacks

Weak monsoon rains in Kodagu and other coffee-growing regions are threatening crop yields, delaying farm operations and increasing pest attacks.

A weak southwest monsoon has left major coffee-growing regions with significant rainfall deficits, delaying berry development, disrupting farm operations and increasing the risk of stem borer and berry borer infestations.

With growers already reporting poor crop development, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has projected a 4% decline in India's 2026–27 coffee production.

Will timely rains over the coming weeks save the crop? Our latest explainer breaks down what's happening, why it matters and what it could mean for coffee growers and consumers.

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How is the weak monsoon affecting India's coffee-growing regions?

A weak start to the southwest monsoon has raised fresh concerns over the outlook for India's 2026-27 coffee crop, with growers in Kodagu warning that below-normal rainfall is delaying crucial farm operations, affecting berry development and creating favourable conditions for damaging pest infestations.

The country's largest coffee-growing district has recorded a significant rainfall deficit during the early phase of the southwest monsoon. According to India Meteorological Department (IMD) data, Kodagu received 169.3 mm of rainfall between June 1 and 17 against the normal 262.2 mm, a shortfall of 35%.

The rainfall pattern has been similar across other major coffee-producing regions. Chikkamagaluru recorded a 37% deficit, Hassan 29%, while Kerala's Wayanad reported the highest shortfall at 45%.

Why is the weak monsoon a concern for coffee plantations?

Coffee cultivation depends heavily on timely and well-distributed rainfall. Growers say this year's pre-monsoon showers between March and May were both delayed and erratic, while the southwest monsoon has so far failed to gather strength.

"The coverage of the monsoon has been extremely poor. We didn't get the full force of the first wave of the monsoon," said Sahadev Balakrishna, Chairman of the UPASI Coffee Committee as told to Businessline.

While he said it was still too early to estimate the final impact on production, he cautioned that a prolonged weak monsoon could affect not only coffee plants but also water resources and the wider ecological system supporting plantations.

How are coffee plants already being affected?

Planters say the immediate impact is visible in poor berry development and delayed agricultural operations.

"Due to the weak monsoon the berry development is bad," said M. Salman Baseer, Chairman of the Karnataka Planters Association. He noted that delayed pre-monsoon showers had already resulted in heavy white stem borer infestation in Arabica plantations, while Robusta crop setting has also been poor in most regions except parts of Mudigere and Aldur that received better rainfall.

The lack of continuous rain has also prevented growers from carrying out manuring and other essential cultural practices.

Former Karnataka Growers Federation president B.S. Jayaram said growers are unable to undertake routine field operations because of inadequate rainfall. He added that stem borer and berry borer infestations have already begun appearing in some areas, warning that normal monsoon showers usually help suppress these pests naturally.

Balakrishna also cautioned that if dry conditions continue in Arabica-growing regions, stem borer incidence could worsen. At the same time, uneven berry development caused by irregular rainfall may increase fruit drop when heavier rains arrive during July.

What does this mean for India's coffee production?

The concerns come as the United States Department of Agriculture's office in Mumbai has projected a 4% decline in India's 2026-27 coffee production to around 6.14 million bags, or about 3.68 lakh tonnes, citing lower yields due to unfavourable weather conditions.

The forecast includes an estimated 1.56 million bags of Arabica and 4.58 million bags of Robusta coffee.

Meanwhile, the Coffee Board is yet to release its post-blossom estimates for the 2026-27 crop and final production estimates for 2025-26.

For now, growers say much will depend on how the southwest monsoon performs over the coming weeks. If widespread and consistent rainfall returns soon, it could still improve crop prospects. However, an extended dry spell may intensify pest attacks, disrupt berry development and ultimately reduce coffee yields across India's key producing regions.

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