Explained: How has Brazil’s Bumper Harvest Caused Coffee Prices to Crash in India?

Saritha Devaiah Ballachanda
Jul 11
3 min read

The Kodagu Express explains what’s causing the price crash and how Brazil’s harvest is impacting Indian coffee growers. — *The Kodagu Express* explains what’s causing the price crash and how Brazil’s harvest is impacting Indian coffee growers.

High production in Brazil, early selling by growers, and a strong harvest in South India have led to a sharp fall in coffee prices

India’s coffee industry is experiencing a steep fall in prices, with Robusta beans plummeting by nearly 30%, from ₹284 per kg in March to just ₹180 per kg. Arabica has also seen a 17% decline. The data, reported by the Coffee Board of India, reflects a worrying trend for farmers in key growing regions.

Why are prices crashing?

A major factor behind this drop is an ongoing bumper harvest in Brazil, the world’s top coffee producer. According to a report by Onmanorama, Brazil has already completed about half of its current harvest, which is expected to yield around 56 million bags. In contrast, India produces only about 5 million bags annually.

Prasanth Rajesh, Director of the Wayanad Coffee Growers’ Association, told Onmanorama that Brazil’s sheer dominance in global output means that any development in its coffee sector has an immediate and significant impact on international prices — including those in India.

He also explained that nearly 30% of a coffee grower’s annual cost is incurred during harvest season, forcing both Brazilian and Indian farmers to sell early in order to meet expenses. This flood of early stock into the market has added to the pressure on prices.

How are Indian growers affected?

Coffee producers in Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu, the three major coffee-growing states are feeling the heat. Karnataka accounts for around 70% of India’s total coffee production, while Kerala and Tamil Nadu contribute significantly as well. Robusta beans are extensively cultivated in Wayanad, Coorg, and the Nilgiris, while Arabica is predominantly grown in Chikkamagaluru and surrounding areas.

Ideal climatic conditions in these regions have further added to the price slump. As per Onmanorama, experts believe that strong pre-blossom and post-blossom showers have set the stage for a promising harvest in the months ahead.

Dr M. Karuthamani, Joint Director (Extension) of the Coffee Board for Kerala and Tamil Nadu, told Onmanorama that Wayanad alone is expected to produce about 60,000 metric tons of Robusta this season. He acknowledged that increased domestic production forecasts have contributed to downward price pressure. However, he ruled out the possibility of a further drop, citing strong global demand that may absorb some of the excess supply from Brazil.

What changed from last year?

Just a few months ago, the situation was very different. During the previous harvest, dry Robusta prices soared from ₹80 to a record ₹284 per kg due to fears of a crop shortfall in Brazil. According to Onmanorama, many small and medium-scale farmers sold their stock when prices crossed ₹250, while large growers and traders waited, expecting rates to breach ₹300 a gamble that hasn’t paid off this time.

What lies ahead?

With both Brazil and South India headed for bumper harvests, price volatility is expected to continue. While global demand offers some hope, farmers are calling for better support mechanisms, storage facilities, and price stabilisation measures.

India’s coffee market remains vulnerable to international trends, especially those unfolding in Brazil thousands of kilometres away but just one harvest away from affecting Indian livelihoods.