El Niño Threat Looms Over Karnataka coffee crop, production may fall 15–20%: KPA
Chikkamagaluru: Intensifying El Niño conditions and prolonged heat stress could deal a major blow to Karnataka’s coffee plantations, with production in the 2026-27 crop year projected to decline by 15–20%, the Karnataka Planters’ Association (KPA) has warned.
Rising temperatures, irregular rainfall and extended dry spells are raising concerns about the impact of climate change on coffee productivity. Karnataka accounts for around 70% of India’s total coffee production, making the potential decline a significant concern for the country’s coffee sector.
The United Planters’ Association of South India (UPASI) has projected a 7–10% decline in coffee production across South India and the Northeast. These estimates contrast with the Coffee Board’s post-blossom forecast of four lakh metric tonnes (MT) for India in 2026-27, compared with the final production of 3.7 lakh MT in 2025-26, according to TOI report.
Ahead of the KPA’s 68th annual general body meeting in Chikkamagaluru on Monday, representatives of both associations said domestic and international coffee prices were unlikely to witness significant fluctuations during the coming crop year.
Sahadev Balakrishna, chairperson of UPASI’s Coffee Committee, said the full impact of the prevailing climatic conditions might not become evident during the current harvest.
Although rainfall was erratic in August and September, forecasts indicated that the Northeast monsoon could be near normal. However, continued heat stress and prolonged dry spells in early 2027 could affect plantation productivity.
The extent of the damage would depend on the duration and intensity of the adverse weather, the recovery in rainfall and the condition of the plantations, he said.
UPASI estimates indicate that Arabica production could fall to around one lakh MT, against the Coffee Board’s estimate of 1.2 lakh MT. Robusta output is also expected to decline.
Karnataka faces a sharper impact
KPA president M. Salman Baseer said the Coffee Board’s post-blossom estimate for Karnataka stood at 2.8 lakh MT, comprising 84,015 MT of Arabica and approximately 1.9 lakh MT of Robusta. This compares with the state’s final production of 2.6 lakh MT in 2025-26.
However, drought conditions could reduce Karnataka’s coffee output by 15–20%, posing a serious setback to the state’s plantation economy, Baseer said.
The KPA has appealed to the state and Union governments to intervene and extend support to coffee growers amid the growing climate-related challenges.
Planters’ associations said the weather conditions over the coming months would be crucial in determining the extent of production losses in the 2026-27 crop year.
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